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Boxing Match Champion on Kalshi
If Jake Paul wins the Jake Paul vs Cedric Doumbe boxing match originally scheduled for Dec 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: DAZN, ESPN, Netflix, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
60%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
79% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 60¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.40 | 61.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Joshua wins · Anthony Joshua | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 113,636 | Dec 26, 03:00 UTC |
| Tyson Fury wins · Tyson Fury | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 67,124 | Dec 26, 03:00 UTC |
| Cedric Doumbe wins · Cedric Doumbe | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 11,237 | Jan 07, 21:00 UTC |
| Jake Paul wins · Jake Paul | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 3,032 | Jan 07, 21:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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