Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Bozeman housing units authorized on Kalshi
If the Census Bureau reports that the number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in calendar year 2026 is above 1,700 units, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
92%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
15% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 93¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $0.24 | 93.5% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units? · Above 1,400 units | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 29,852 | May 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,250 units? · Above 1,250 units | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 19,029 | May 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,700 units? · Above 1,700 units | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 15,047 | May 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units? · Above 950 units | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11,144 | May 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,100 units? · Above 1,100 units | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 7,910 | May 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,550 units? · Above 1,550 units | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 1,219 | May 31, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.