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Brasileiro Winner on Kalshi
If Vitoria is the 2026 Brasileiro Serie A Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Palmeiras win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Palmeiras | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 16,799 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Flamengo win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Flamengo | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 13,899 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Bahia win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Bahia | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,482 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Fluminense win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Fluminense | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,433 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Atletico Mineiro win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Atletico Mineiro | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,356 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Corinthians win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Corinthians | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,266 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Cruzeiro win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Cruzeiro | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,675 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Paranaense win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Paranaense | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,313 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Santos win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Santos | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,034 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Sao Paulo win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Sao Paulo | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 818 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Mirassol win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Mirassol | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 521 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Internacional win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Internacional | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 497 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Remo win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Remo | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 468 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Vasco da Gama win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Vasco da Gama | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 136 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Botafogo win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Botafogo | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Bragantino win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Bragantino | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Vitoria win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Vitoria | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Gremio win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Gremio | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Coritiba win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Coritiba | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Chapecoense win the Brasileiro Serie A? · Chapecoense | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1 | Dec 16, 20:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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