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Brasileiro Serie B Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Ponte Preta vs Ferroviario professional Brasileiro Serie B soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
52% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.59 | 27.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo wins · Botafogo | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,421 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Juventude RS wins · Juventude RS | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 1,237 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Londrina wins · Londrina | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 949 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Gremio Novorizontino wins · Gremio Novorizontino | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 646 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| AC Goianiense wins · AC Goianiense | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 368 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Nautico wins · Nautico | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 351 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Criciuma wins · Criciuma | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 337 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Cuiaba wins · Cuiaba | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 241 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Ceara wins · Ceara | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 213 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 193 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Vila Nova wins · Vila Nova | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 153 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Avai wins · Avai | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 111 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Goias wins · Goias | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 98 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| America FC wins · America FC | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 78 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Sport Recife wins · Sport Recife | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 6 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Ponte Preta wins · Ponte Preta | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Ferroviario wins · Ferroviario | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Sao Bernardo wins · Sao Bernardo | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Athletic Club Sjdr wins · Athletic Club Sjdr | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Fortaleza wins · Fortaleza | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| CR Brasil wins · CR Brasil | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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