What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 9¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.19.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 10% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 9%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Spread on Kalshi

If Sao Bernardo wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Sao Bernardo vs Athletic Club Sjdr professional Brasileiro Serie B soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

18% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.19	9.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Nautico wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Nautico wins by more than 2.5 goals	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	44	Nov 13, 22:00 UTC
Athletic Club Sjdr wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Athletic Club Sjdr wins by more than 2.5 goals	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	14	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Sao Bernardo wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Sao Bernardo wins by more than 2.5 goals	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Sao Bernardo wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Sao Bernardo wins by more than 1.5 goals	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Athletic Club Sjdr wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Athletic Club Sjdr wins by more than 1.5 goals	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Ponte Preta wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Ponte Preta wins by more than 2.5 goals	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Nov 14, 22:00 UTC
Ponte Preta wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Ponte Preta wins by more than 1.5 goals	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Nov 14, 22:00 UTC
Ferroviario wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Ferroviario wins by more than 2.5 goals	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	0	Nov 14, 22:00 UTC
Ferroviario wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Ferroviario wins by more than 1.5 goals	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	68%	0	Nov 14, 22:00 UTC
Nautico wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Nautico wins by more than 1.5 goals	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	0	Nov 13, 22:00 UTC
Londrina wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Londrina wins by more than 2.5 goals	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	0	Nov 13, 22:00 UTC
Londrina wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Londrina wins by more than 1.5 goals	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	73%	0	Nov 13, 22:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.