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Point Total on Kalshi
If over 5.5 goals are scored in the Sao Bernardo vs Athletic Club Sjdr professional Brasileiro Serie B soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
96% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will over 5.5 goals be scored? · Over 5.5 goals scored | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 534 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 241 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 25 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 25 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will over 5.5 goals be scored? · Over 5.5 goals scored | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 19 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 14 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will over 5.5 goals be scored? · Over 5.5 goals scored | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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