What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.22.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Brasileiro Serie A Game on Kalshi

If Vasco da Gama wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

16% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
8¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.22	8.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Vasco da Gama wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Vasco da Gama wins by more than 1.5 goals	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	72%	48	Nov 16, 23:30 UTC
Vasco da Gama wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Vasco da Gama wins by more than 2.5 goals	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	0	Nov 16, 23:30 UTC
Chapecoense wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Chapecoense wins by more than 2.5 goals	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Nov 16, 23:30 UTC
Chapecoense wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Chapecoense wins by more than 1.5 goals	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Nov 16, 23:30 UTC
Mirassol wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Mirassol wins by more than 2.5 goals	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	0	Nov 16, 21:30 UTC
Mirassol wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Mirassol wins by more than 1.5 goals	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	48%	0	Nov 16, 21:30 UTC
Atletico Mineiro wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Atletico Mineiro wins by more than 2.5 goals	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Nov 16, 21:30 UTC
Atletico Mineiro wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Atletico Mineiro wins by more than 1.5 goals	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	0	Nov 16, 21:30 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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