What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 6¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.31.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 6% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 6%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Brazil presidential election on Kalshi

If Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2030 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

11% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
6¢ (now)	0.4¢	$3.29	6.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Renan Santos win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? · Renan Santos	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	658	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? · Michelle Bolsonaro	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	91	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? · Flávio Bolsonaro	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	85	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? · Tarcísio de Freitas	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	12	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? · Fernando Haddad	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Romeu Zema win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? · Romeu Zema	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Ratinho Júnior win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? · Ratinho Júnior	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? · Ronaldo Caiado	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will João Campos win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? · João Campos	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? · Guilherme Boulos	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? · Geraldo Alckmin	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? · Eduardo Leite	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.