What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 5¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.33.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 5% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 5%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Who will be Brazilian foreign minister after the election? on Kalshi

If Simone Tebet formally takes office as Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, Deutsche Welle, MS Now, ABC, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Al Jazeera, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, CNN, Fox News, Reuters, ABC News Australia, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, BBC.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

10% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
5¢ (now)	0.3¢	$3.33	5.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Maria Laura da Rocha be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Maria Laura da Rocha	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	222	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Aloizio Mercadante be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Aloizio Mercadante	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	196	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Mauro Vieira be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Mauro Vieira	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	140	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Celso Amorim be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Celso Amorim	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	126	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Simone Tebet be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Simone Tebet	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Maurício Lyrio be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Maurício Lyrio	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	0	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Fernando Haddad be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Fernando Haddad	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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