What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 22¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.71.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 24% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 22%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Broadline Retail Ad Spend on Kalshi

If the Carbon Arc Broadline Retail Ad Spend (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 80 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Carbon Arc.

Market says (typical open contract)

22%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

45% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
23¢ (now)	1.2¢	$2.70	24.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Broadline Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 113 ? · Above 113	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	81%	8,818	Dec 06, 04:59 UTC
Will Broadline Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 102 ? · Above 102	86¢	86%	0.8¢	—	28%	747	Dec 06, 04:59 UTC
Will Broadline Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 124 ? · Above 124	38¢	38%	1.7¢	—	77%	151	Dec 06, 04:59 UTC
Will Broadline Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 80 ? · Above 80	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Dec 06, 04:59 UTC
Will Broadline Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 91 ? · Above 91	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	0	Dec 06, 04:59 UTC
Will Broadline Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 167.5 ? · Above 167.5	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Dec 06, 04:59 UTC
Will Broadline Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 152.5 ? · Above 152.5	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	0	Dec 06, 04:59 UTC
Will Broadline Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 146 ? · Above 146	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	0	Dec 06, 04:59 UTC
Will Broadline Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 140.5 ? · Above 140.5	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	0	Dec 06, 04:59 UTC
Will Broadline Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 135 ? · Above 135	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	0	Dec 06, 04:59 UTC
Will Broadline Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 129.5 ? · Above 129.5	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	0	Dec 06, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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