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Dutch Bros annual kpi on Kalshi
If Dutch Bros Inc. reports Above 1340 total shops in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
84%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
33% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 83¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $0.60 | 84.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dutch Bros Inc. report Above 6.5% same-shop sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 6.5% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 350 | May 20, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Dutch Bros Inc. report Above 1340 total shops in fiscal 2026? · Above 1340 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 179 | May 20, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Dutch Bros Inc. report Above 1300 total shops in fiscal 2026? · Above 1300 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 94 | May 20, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Dutch Bros Inc. report Above 1320 total shops in fiscal 2026? · Above 1320 | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 4 | May 20, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Dutch Bros Inc. report Above 1330 total shops in fiscal 2026? · Above 1330 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | May 20, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Dutch Bros Inc. report Above 1310 total shops in fiscal 2026? · Above 1310 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | May 20, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Dutch Bros Inc. report Above 6% same-shop sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 6% | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | May 20, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Dutch Bros Inc. report Above 5.5% same-shop sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 5.5% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | May 20, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Dutch Bros Inc. report Above 5% same-shop sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 5% | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | May 20, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Dutch Bros Inc. report Above 4.5% same-shop sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 4.5% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | May 20, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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