Markets › Kalshi › Crypto
How low will Bitcoin fall this year? on Kalshi
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $40000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: CF Benchmarks.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
50%
Five-minute and fifteen-minute moves have no measurable predictability; our own 30-day test of the most popular entry rule lost on 76% of trades.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
A coin flip with a cover charge. Skill contributes nothing at this horizon; the fee always does.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET? · Below $55,000.00 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 100% | 2,044,469 | Jan 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET? · Below $50,000.00 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 100% | 1,664,872 | Jan 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET? · Below $40,000.00 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 100% | 1,476,485 | Jan 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET? · Below $45,000.00 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 100% | 1,044,992 | Jan 01, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.