What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 6¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.27.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 7% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 6%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Crypto

will Bitcoin hit price target by date on Kalshi

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $130000 starting Sep 22, 2026 and before May 13, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: CF Benchmarks.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

13% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
7¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.25	7.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Bitcoin be above $130,000 by Jul 8, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET? · By Jul 8, 2027	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	49,776	Jul 08, 14:00 UTC
Will Bitcoin be above $130,000 by Jun 10, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET? · By Jun 10, 2027	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	33,786	Jun 10, 14:00 UTC
Will Bitcoin be above $130,000 by Dec 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · By Dec 24, 2026	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	10,417	Dec 24, 15:00 UTC
Will Bitcoin be above $130,000 by Apr 15, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET? · By Apr 15, 2027	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	9,427	Apr 15, 14:00 UTC
Will Bitcoin be above $130,000 by Jan 21, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET? · By Jan 21, 2027	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	6,445	Jan 21, 15:00 UTC
Will Bitcoin be above $130,000 by Nov 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · By Nov 26, 2026	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	6,412	Nov 26, 15:00 UTC
Will Bitcoin be above $130,000 by May 13, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET? · By May 13, 2027	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	3,793	May 13, 14:00 UTC
Will Bitcoin be above $130,000 by Mar 18, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET? · By Mar 18, 2027	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	2,291	Mar 18, 14:00 UTC
Will Bitcoin be above $130,000 by Feb 18, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET? · By Feb 18, 2027	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	2,247	Feb 18, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.