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Team Points on Kalshi
If Stuttgart reaches at least 70 points in the 2026-27 Bundesliga season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 72 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
89% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bayern Munich finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 85+ points? · Bayern Munich: 85+ Points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 149 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will M´gladbach finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 35+ points? · M´gladbach: 35+ Points | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 16 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Bremen finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 45+ points? · Bremen: 45+ Points | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 10 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Dortmund finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 65+ points? · Dortmund: 65+ Points | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 10 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Elversberg finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 40+ points? · Elversberg: 40+ Points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 8 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Hoffenheim finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 50+ points? · Hoffenheim: 50+ Points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Augsburg finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 45+ points? · Augsburg: 45+ Points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stuttgart finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 70+ points? · Stuttgart: 70+ Points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stuttgart finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 65+ points? · Stuttgart: 65+ Points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stuttgart finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 60+ points? · Stuttgart: 60+ Points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stuttgart finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 55+ points? · Stuttgart: 55+ Points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Union Berlin finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 50+ points? · Union Berlin: 50+ Points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Union Berlin finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 45+ points? · Union Berlin: 45+ Points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Union Berlin finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 40+ points? · Union Berlin: 40+ Points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Union Berlin finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 35+ points? · Union Berlin: 35+ Points | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Hoffenheim finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 65+ points? · Hoffenheim: 65+ Points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Hoffenheim finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 60+ points? · Hoffenheim: 60+ Points | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Hoffenheim finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 55+ points? · Hoffenheim: 55+ Points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Bremen finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 40+ points? · Bremen: 40+ Points | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Bremen finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 35+ points? · Bremen: 35+ Points | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Bremen finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 30+ points? · Bremen: 30+ Points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Elversberg finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 35+ points? · Elversberg: 35+ Points | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Elversberg finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 30+ points? · Elversberg: 30+ Points | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Elversberg finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 25+ points? · Elversberg: 25+ Points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Frankfurt finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 55+ points? · Frankfurt: 55+ Points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Frankfurt finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 50+ points? · Frankfurt: 50+ Points | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Frankfurt finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 45+ points? · Frankfurt: 45+ Points | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Frankfurt finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 40+ points? · Frankfurt: 40+ Points | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Schalke finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 40+ points? · Schalke: 40+ Points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Schalke finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 35+ points? · Schalke: 35+ Points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Schalke finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 30+ points? · Schalke: 30+ Points | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Schalke finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 25+ points? · Schalke: 25+ Points | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Freiburg finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 55+ points? · Freiburg: 55+ Points | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Freiburg finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 50+ points? · Freiburg: 50+ Points | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Freiburg finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 45+ points? · Freiburg: 45+ Points | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Freiburg finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 40+ points? · Freiburg: 40+ Points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Leipzig finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 75+ points? · Leipzig: 75+ Points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Leipzig finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 70+ points? · Leipzig: 70+ Points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Leipzig finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 65+ points? · Leipzig: 65+ Points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Leipzig finish the 2026-27 Bundesliga season with 60+ points? · Leipzig: 60+ Points | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 72 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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