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Andy Burnham mention on Kalshi
If Andy Burnham says Ukraine / Ukrainian as part of next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons) , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: UK Parliament.
Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
79% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 40¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.10 | 41.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · Budget | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 14,957 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · Benefit / Welfare | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 9,351 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · Ukraine / Ukrainian | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 6,706 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · EU / European Union | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 5,014 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · Event does not qualify | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,252 | Nov 18, 16:55 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · Immigrant / Immigration | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,374 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · Brexit | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,193 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · Trump | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 1,166 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · NHS / Healthcare | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 1,129 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · AI / Artificial Intelligence | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 899 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · Reform | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 864 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · Tax | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 790 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 783 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · Energy | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 748 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · NATO | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 472 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · Iran / Iranian | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 416 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · China / Chinese | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 333 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Andy Burnham say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)? · Russia / Russian | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 273 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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