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how many people will attend on Kalshi
If the number of people who enter Broadway performances in New York City during The 2026–27 Broadway season is above 14800000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: WSOP.
Market says (typical open contract)
51%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will above 13500000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season? · above 13,500,000 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 92,833 | Jul 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will above 13750000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season? · above 13,750,000 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 81,419 | Jul 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will above 14800000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season? · above 14,800,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 72,723 | Jul 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will above 14000000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season? · above 14,000,000 | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 60,583 | Jul 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will above 14700000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season? · above 14,700,000 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 50,397 | Jul 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will above 14500000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season? · above 14,500,000 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 35,028 | Jul 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will above 14250000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season? · above 14,250,000 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 33,386 | Jul 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will above 14600000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season? · above 14,600,000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 32,344 | Jul 22, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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