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Broadway Weekly Attendance on Kalshi
If the number of people who enter Broadway performances in New York City during the Monday-through-Sunday week ending November 15, 2026 is above 360,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Broadway League.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadway attendance above 360,000? · Above 360,000 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 55 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 350,000? · Above 350,000 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 55 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 340,000? · Above 340,000 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 55 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 330,000? · Above 330,000 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 55 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 320,000? · Above 320,000 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 55 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 310,000? · Above 310,000 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 55 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 300,000? · Above 300,000 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 55 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 290,000? · Above 290,000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 280,000? · Above 280,000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 270,000? · Above 270,000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 260,000? · Above 260,000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 250,000? · Above 250,000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 240,000? · Above 240,000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 230,000? · Above 230,000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Broadway attendance above 220,000? · Above 220,000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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