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Cabinet member leaving on Kalshi
If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from Nov 6, 2026 at 3pm EST to Apr 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, White House, New York Times, Bloomberg, Axios, Reuters, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
97%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 97¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $0.11 | 97.2% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Dec 2026? · Before Dec 2026 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 400 | Dec 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Jan 2027? · Before Jan 2027 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 27 | Jan 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before May 2027? · Before May 2027 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | May 01, 04:00 UTC |
| Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Mar 2027? · Before Mar 2027 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Mar 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Jun 2027? · Before Jun 2027 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jun 01, 04:00 UTC |
| Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Jul 2027? · Before Jul 2027 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 04:00 UTC |
| Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Feb 2027? · Before Feb 2027 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Feb 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Apr 2027? · Before Apr 2027 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Apr 01, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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