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Next Cabinet memeber out on Kalshi
If Todd Blanche is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being removed from office) after Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: White House, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Hegseth be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Pete Hegseth | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 5,495 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Marco Rubio | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 4,243 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 1,687 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Howard Lutnick be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Howard Lutnick | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 709 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Stephen Miller be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Stephen Miller | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 669 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Scott Bessent be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Scott Bessent | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 334 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brooke Rollins be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Brooke Rollins | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 330 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Markwayne Mullin be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Markwayne Mullin | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 303 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jay Clayton be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Jay Clayton | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 278 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Linda McMahon be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Linda McMahon | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 219 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Waltz be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Mike Waltz | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 110 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Todd Blanche be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Todd Blanche | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 86 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Doug Burgum be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Doug Burgum | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 42 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Scott Turner be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Scott Turner | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 8 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kelly Loeffler be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Kelly Loeffler | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 7 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Doug Collins be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Doug Collins | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Wright be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Chris Wright | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lee Zeldin be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Lee Zeldin | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Russell Vought be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Russell Vought | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sean Duffy be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Sean Duffy | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Ratcliffe be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · John Ratcliffe | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jamieson Greer be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Jamieson Greer | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Christopher Phelan be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Christopher Phelan | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Keith Sonderling be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Keith Sonderling | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Kratsios be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Michael Kratsios | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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