Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Cheesecake Factory quarter kpi on Kalshi
If The Cheesecake Factory Inc. reports Above 17% comparable restaurant sales in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 410 total company-owned restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 410 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7,898 | Aug 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 385 total company-owned restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 385 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 6,434 | Aug 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 390 total company-owned restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 390 | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 3,898 | Aug 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 400 total company-owned restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 400 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1,422 | Aug 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 14.0% comparable restaurant sales in Q1 2027? · Above 14.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 300 | Aug 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 13.0% comparable restaurant sales in Q1 2027? · Above 13.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 200 | Aug 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 405 total company-owned restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 405 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 200 | Aug 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 12.0% comparable restaurant sales in Q1 2027? · Above 12.0% | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 100 | Aug 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 395 total company-owned restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 395 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 54 | Aug 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 17% comparable restaurant sales in Q1 2027? · Above 17% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 16% comparable restaurant sales in Q1 2027? · Above 16% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 15% comparable restaurant sales in Q1 2027? · Above 15% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 9.0% comparable restaurant sales in Q1 2027? · Above 9.0% | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Aug 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 8.0% comparable restaurant sales in Q1 2027? · Above 8.0% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Aug 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 7.0% comparable restaurant sales in Q1 2027? · Above 7.0% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Aug 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 6.0% comparable restaurant sales in Q1 2027? · Above 6.0% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Aug 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 11.0% comparable restaurant sales in Q1 2027? · Above 11.0% | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Aug 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 10.0% comparable restaurant sales in Q1 2027? · Above 10.0% | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Aug 26, 20:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.