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Cheesecake Factory annual kpi on Kalshi
If The Cheesecake Factory Inc. reports Above 8% comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
88%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
23% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 89¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $0.38 | 89.7% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 400 total company-owned restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 400 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 8,710 | May 18, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 390 total company-owned restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 390 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 8,044 | May 18, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 380 total company-owned restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 380 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,130 | May 18, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 395 total company-owned restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 395 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 6,765 | May 18, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report above 385 total company-owned restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 385 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 3,460 | May 18, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 5.5% comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026? · Above 5.5% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 1,588 | May 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 4.5% comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026? · Above 4.5% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,447 | May 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 6% comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026? · Above 6% | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 1,054 | May 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 6.5% comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026? · Above 6.5% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 811 | May 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 5% comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026? · Above 5% | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 785 | May 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 3% comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026? · Above 3% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 30 | May 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 8% comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026? · Above 8% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | May 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 7.5% comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026? · Above 7.5% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | May 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 7% comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026? · Above 7% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | May 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 4% comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026? · Above 4% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | May 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 3.5% comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026? · Above 3.5% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | May 17, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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