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Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. electric trucks on Kalshi
If the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin electric trucks as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is above 50%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Government of Canada.
Market says (typical open contract)
86%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
28% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 86¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $0.49 | 86.8% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin electric trucks on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 30%? · Above 30% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,013 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin electric trucks on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 40%? · Above 40% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 314 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin electric trucks on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 50%? · Above 50% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 9 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin electric trucks on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 20%? · Above 20% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin electric trucks on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 10%? · Above 10% | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin electric trucks on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 0%? · Above 0% | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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