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Canadian provincial snap elections on Kalshi
If the government of Saskatchewan calls a snap provincial election after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Canadian Press, CBC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
16% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the government of Manitoba calls a snap provincial election before Jan 1, 2028? · Manitoba | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 600 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the government of Quebec calls a snap provincial election before Jan 1, 2028? · Quebec | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 200 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the government of Saskatchewan calls a snap provincial election before Jan 1, 2028? · Saskatchewan | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the government of Prince Edward Island calls a snap provincial election before Jan 1, 2028? · Prince Edward Island | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the government of Ontario calls a snap provincial election before Jan 1, 2028? · Ontario | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the government of Nova Scotia calls a snap provincial election before Jan 1, 2028? · Nova Scotia | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the government of Newfoundland and Labrador calls a snap provincial election before Jan 1, 2028? · Newfoundland and Labrador | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the government of New Brunswick calls a snap provincial election before Jan 1, 2028? · New Brunswick | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the government of Alberta calls a snap provincial election before Jan 1, 2028? · Alberta | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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