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Canada announces new or increased tariffs on U.S. goods on Kalshi

If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to impose a new Canadian tariff or increase an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Prime Minister of Canada.

Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
20% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
10¢ (now)0.6¢$3.1510.6%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce new or increased tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 202710¢10%0.6¢—20%2,098Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce new or increased tariffs on U.S. goods before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 20265¢5%0.3¢—10%163Dec 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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