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Canadian trips to U.S. down X% in [year]? on Kalshi
If Statistics Canada reports that the decline in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States for 2026 is greater than 20% compared with 2025 in its "Travel between Canada and other countries, December 2026" release, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the decline in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States for 2026 be above 20%? · Decline greater than 20% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 31,427 | Feb 23, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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