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Carney Mention on Kalshi
If Mark Carney says USMCA / CUSMA as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
32%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
65% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 33¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.34 | 34.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Rare Earth / Mineral | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 367 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Tariff | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 282 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · China / Chinese | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 158 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Arctic | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 90 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 76 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · AI / Artificial Intelligence | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 50 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Defense / Defence | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 41 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · USMCA / CUSMA | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 40 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Ukraine / Ukrainian | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 17 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · NATO | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 12 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Event does not qualify | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 5 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 5 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Trump (3+ times) | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Pipeline | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Nuclear | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Lumber | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Mark Carney say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · 51st State | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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