What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 24¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.64.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 26% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 24%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

CA secession on Kalshi

If the California Secretary of State officially certifies that at least one ballot initiative on California secession has qualified for the ballot before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: California county registrars' offices, official proponent filings, Ballotpedia, CalMatters, Politico California, California Attorney General's Office, the Associated Press, Court decisions from California Supreme Court or Federal Courts with jurisdiction, the California Secretary of State, Sacramento Bee, San Francisco Chronicle, Official California Legislative Information website, Los Angeles Times, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

24%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

49% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
24¢ (now)	1.3¢	$2.66	25.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030? · Before 2030	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	49%	1,811	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.