What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 60¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.40.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 62% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 60%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

will party win its lawsuit against party? on Kalshi

If Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell has achieved the superior outcome in the trial-level resolution of their law suit against Anthropic (Case 5:26-cv-09217) (originally filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, San Jose Division), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, The Source Agencies are, MSNBC, court clerk's office for judicial body, Law360, STAT News, PACER, Bloomberg Law Court Filings, CBS, the Associated Press, The Washington Post, Legal Monitor Worldwide, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Westlaw Court Records, The New York Times, NBC, Politico, in hierarchical order: judicial body official records and electronic filing systems, Bloomberg News, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

60%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

80% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
60¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.40	61.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell win their law suit against Anthropic (Case 5:26-cv-09217)? · Before 2028	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	80%	241	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.