Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Bank Of Canada policy interest rate decision on Kalshi
If the Bank of Canada takes the action of hike greater than 25bps at its Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bank of Canada, Trading Economics.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bank of Canada maintain the current rate at their December 2026 meeting? · Maintains rate | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 60,525 | Dec 09, 14:29 UTC |
| Will Bank of Canada hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? · Hike 25bps | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 41,056 | Dec 09, 14:29 UTC |
| Will Bank of Canada cut rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting? · Cut >25bps | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,693 | Dec 09, 14:29 UTC |
| Will Bank of Canada hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting? · Hike >25bps | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,335 | Dec 09, 14:29 UTC |
| Will Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? · Cut 25bps | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,978 | Dec 09, 14:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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