Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Bank of India policy interest rate decision on Kalshi
If the Reserve Bank of India takes the action of maintain current rate at its December Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Reserve Bank of India, Trading Economics.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Reserve Bank of India cut 1-25bps at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting? · Cut 1-25bps | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11,846 | Dec 04, 05:29 UTC |
| Will the Reserve Bank of India cut more than 25bps at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting? · Cut more than 25bps | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,733 | Dec 04, 05:29 UTC |
| Will the Reserve Bank of India maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting? · Maintain current rate | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,796 | Dec 04, 05:29 UTC |
| Will the Reserve Bank of India hike 1-25bps at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting? · Hike 1-25bps | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 962 | Dec 04, 05:29 UTC |
| Will the Reserve Bank of India hike more than 25bps at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting? · Hike more than 25bps | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 627 | Dec 04, 05:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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