Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Bank Of Japan policy interest rate decision on Kalshi
If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Maintain current rate at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bank of Japan, Trading Economics.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? · Maintain current rate | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 10,474 | Dec 18, 03:29 UTC |
| Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? · Hike 25bps | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 10,163 | Dec 18, 03:29 UTC |
| Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? · Hike more than 25bps | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 358 | Dec 18, 03:29 UTC |
| Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? · Cut more than 25bps | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 255 | Dec 18, 03:29 UTC |
| Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? · Cut 25bps | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 255 | Dec 18, 03:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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