Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Bank of Israel interest rate decision on Kalshi
If the Bank of Israel takes the action of maintain current rate at its November Monetary Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bank of Israel, Trading Economics.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Israel cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Committee meeting? · Cut 1-25bps | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 18,093 | Nov 23, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the Bank of Israel hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Committee meeting? · Hike more than 25bps | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 8,267 | Nov 23, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the Bank of Israel cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Committee meeting? · Cut more than 25bps | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,377 | Nov 23, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the Bank of Israel hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Committee meeting? · Hike 1-25bps | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,360 | Nov 23, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the Bank of Israel maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Committee meeting? · Maintain current rate | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 497 | Nov 23, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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