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Carnival Cruise KPI on Kalshi
If Carnival Corporation Ltd. reports Above 25000000 available lower berth days in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
83% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Carnival Corporation Ltd. report Above 23.9 million available lower berth days in Q1 2027? · Above 23.9 million | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 3,067 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carnival Corporation Ltd. report Above 23.4 million available lower berth days in Q1 2027? · Above 23.4 million | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 2,940 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carnival Corporation Ltd. report Above 23.3 million available lower berth days in Q1 2027? · Above 23.3 million | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 2,136 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carnival Corporation Ltd. report Above 22.4 million available lower berth days in Q1 2027? · Above 22.4 million | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,834 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carnival Corporation Ltd. report Above 23.6 million available lower berth days in Q1 2027? · Above 23.6 million | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,329 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carnival Corporation Ltd. report Above 24.2 million available lower berth days in Q1 2027? · Above 24.2 million | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 527 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carnival Corporation Ltd. report Above 23.5 million available lower berth days in Q1 2027? · Above 23.5 million | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 500 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carnival Corporation Ltd. report Above 24.0 million available lower berth days in Q1 2027? · Above 24.0 million | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 409 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carnival Corporation Ltd. report Above 24.1 million available lower berth days in Q1 2027? · Above 24.1 million | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 272 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carnival Corporation Ltd. report Above 25.0 million available lower berth days in Q1 2027? · Above 25.0 million | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 100 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carnival Corporation Ltd. report Above 23.7 million available lower berth days in Q1 2027? · Above 23.7 million | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 43 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carnival Corporation Ltd. report Above 23.8 million available lower berth days in Q1 2027? · Above 23.8 million | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 6 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carnival Corporation Ltd. report Above 23.2 million available lower berth days in Q1 2027? · Above 23.2 million | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.