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round 1 leader on Kalshi
If Zach Johnson is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Charles Schwab Cup Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 35 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Johnson leads at the end of Round 1 · Zach Johnson | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Y.E. Yang leads at the end of Round 1 · Y.E. Yang | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Vaughn Taylor leads at the end of Round 1 · Vaughn Taylor | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Vijay Singh leads at the end of Round 1 · Vijay Singh | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Tag Ridings leads at the end of Round 1 · Tag Ridings | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Timothy O'Neal leads at the end of Round 1 · Timothy O'Neal | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Thongchai Jaidee leads at the end of Round 1 · Thongchai Jaidee | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Tommy Gainey leads at the end of Round 1 · Tommy Gainey | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Soren Kjeldsen leads at the end of Round 1 · Soren Kjeldsen | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Scott Hend leads at the end of Round 1 · Scott Hend | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Stewart Cink leads at the end of Round 1 · Stewart Cink | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Stephen Ames leads at the end of Round 1 · Stephen Ames | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Steve Allan leads at the end of Round 1 · Steve Allan | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Steven Alker leads at the end of Round 1 · Steven Alker | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Rory Sabbatini leads at the end of Round 1 · Rory Sabbatini | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Richard Green leads at the end of Round 1 · Richard Green | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Retief Goosen leads at the end of Round 1 · Retief Goosen | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Ricardo Gonzalez leads at the end of Round 1 · Ricardo Gonzalez | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Padraig Harrington leads at the end of Round 1 · Padraig Harrington | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Michael Wright leads at the end of Round 1 · Michael Wright | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez leads at the end of Round 1 · Miguel Angel Jimenez | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Jerry Kelly leads at the end of Round 1 · Jerry Kelly | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| George McNeill leads at the end of Round 1 · George McNeill | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Fredrik Jacobson leads at the end of Round 1 · Fredrik Jacobson | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Ernie Els leads at the end of Round 1 · Ernie Els | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| David Toms leads at the end of Round 1 · David Toms | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Dicky Pride leads at the end of Round 1 · Dicky Pride | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Darren Fichardt leads at the end of Round 1 · Darren Fichardt | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Darren Clarke leads at the end of Round 1 · Darren Clarke | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Charlie Wi leads at the end of Round 1 · Charlie Wi | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Cameron Percy leads at the end of Round 1 · Cameron Percy | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Boo Weekley leads at the end of Round 1 · Boo Weekley | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Bo Van Pelt leads at the end of Round 1 · Bo Van Pelt | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Ben Crane leads at the end of Round 1 · Ben Crane | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Alex Cejka leads at the end of Round 1 · Alex Cejka | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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