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Chess Fide Rating (by Month) on Kalshi
If Yu Yangyi is rated #3 on the February 2027 FIDE Blitz Top Players (top 100 players) Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: FIDE World Top Players.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 360 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zhu Jiner be rated #2 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in January 2027? · Zhu Jiner | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 810 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated #2 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in January 2027? · Hikaru Nakamura | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 800 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ju Wenjun be rated #3 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in January 2027? · Ju Wenjun | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 610 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated #2 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in January 2027? · Nodirbek Abdusattorov | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 600 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in January 2027? · Hikaru Nakamura | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 400 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zhu Jiner be rated #2 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in February 2027? · Zhu Jiner | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 205 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hou Yifan be rated #1 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in January 2027? · Hou Yifan | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 201 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated #3 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in January 2027? · Hikaru Nakamura | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 200 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hou Yifan be rated #1 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in February 2027? · Hou Yifan | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 200 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Yu Yangyi be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Yu Yangyi | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wesley So be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Wesley So | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vladimir Fedoseev be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Vladimir Fedoseev | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vladislav Artemiev be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Vladislav Artemiev | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nihal Sarin be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Nihal Sarin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Nodirbek Abdusattorov | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Magnus Carlsen be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Magnus Carlsen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ding Liren be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Ding Liren | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Levon Aronian be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Levon Aronian | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Javokhir Sindarov | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ian Nepomniachtchi be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Ian Nepomniachtchi | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Hikaru Nakamura | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hans Moke Niemann be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Hans Moke Niemann | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fabiano Caruana be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Fabiano Caruana | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Daniil Dubov be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Daniil Dubov | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bu Xiangzhi be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Bu Xiangzhi | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alireza Firouzja be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Alireza Firouzja | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arjun Erigaisi be rated #3 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Arjun Erigaisi | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Yu Yangyi be rated #2 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Yu Yangyi | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wesley So be rated #2 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Wesley So | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vladimir Fedoseev be rated #2 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Vladimir Fedoseev | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vladislav Artemiev be rated #2 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Vladislav Artemiev | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa be rated #2 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nihal Sarin be rated #2 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Nihal Sarin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated #2 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Nodirbek Abdusattorov | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave be rated #2 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Magnus Carlsen be rated #2 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Magnus Carlsen | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ding Liren be rated #2 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Ding Liren | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Levon Aronian be rated #2 on the FIDE Blitz Top Players Rating List in February 2027? · Levon Aronian | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 360 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.