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Who will win the Chicago Mayoral Election? on Kalshi
If Toni Brooks wins the 2027 Chicago mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: relevant county clerk or board of elections, Attorney General of the United States, relevant city/municipal clerk, the Federal Election Commission, state board of elections or canvassing board.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Alexi Giannoulias | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 40,863 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Susana Mendoza | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 33,234 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Brandon Johnson | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 29,744 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Willie Wilson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 18,309 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Matt Brewer | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 16,550 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Mike Quigley | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 16,384 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Joe Holberg | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,418 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Maria Pappas | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,281 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Liam Stanton | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,758 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · John Kitover | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,517 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Rahm Emanuel | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 1,213 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Paul Vallas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 977 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Kam Buckner | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 909 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · George Cardenas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 654 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Lisa Madigan | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 582 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Toni Brooks | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 101 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election? · Lisa Nee | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Feb 23, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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