What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 34¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.31.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 36% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 34%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will the Chiefs' Kansas stadium deal become binding before April 2027? on Kalshi

If the Kansas Department of Commerce or the Kansas Sports Facilities Authority announces the completed execution of binding long-form agreements that commit the Kansas City Chiefs to play their home games at a new Wyandotte County stadium and that supersede the non-binding December 22, 2025 STAR Bond Agreement before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: social media of the White House, ABC, the Federal Register, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, CBS, social media of the White House and the President of the United States, NBC, the White House, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, The New York Times, government agency, Semafor, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, the President of the United States.

Market says (typical open contract)

34%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

68% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
34¢ (now)	1.6¢	$2.31	35.6%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the Kansas Department of Commerce or the Kansas Sports Facilities Authority announce the completed execution of binding long-form agreements that commit the Kansas City Chiefs to play their home games at a new Wyandotte County stadium and that supersede the non-binding December 22, 2025 STAR Bond Agreement before Jan 1, 2027? · Yes	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	68%	247	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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