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Will China approve extra central government bonds? on Kalshi
If China agrees to or announces approval by the National People's Congress or its Standing Committee of at least 1 trillion yuan in additional central government bonds above the amount in its most recently approved annual central budget before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China, the government of the People's Republic of China, National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China approve extra central government bonds of at least 1 trillion yuan before Apr 1, 2027? · Yes | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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