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Which companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list? on Kalshi
If the United States Department of Defense announces the inclusion of Xiaomi as an expressly named entity on the unclassified §1260H list of Chinese military companies before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: social media of the White House, ABC, the Federal Register, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, CBS, social media of the White House and the President of the United States, NBC, the White House, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, The New York Times, government agency, Semafor, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, the President of the United States.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.66 | 25.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United States Department of Defense announce the inclusion of DeepSeek as an expressly named entity on the unclassified §1260H list of Chinese military companies before Jul 1, 2027? · DeepSeek | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 936 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the United States Department of Defense announce the inclusion of Xiaomi as an expressly named entity on the unclassified §1260H list of Chinese military companies before Jul 1, 2027? · Xiaomi | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 656 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the United States Department of Defense announce the inclusion of Moonshot AI as an expressly named entity on the unclassified §1260H list of Chinese military companies before Jul 1, 2027? · Moonshot AI | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 416 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the United States Department of Defense announce the inclusion of Gotion High-Tech as an expressly named entity on the unclassified §1260H list of Chinese military companies before Jul 1, 2027? · Gotion High-Tech | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 354 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the United States Department of Defense announce the inclusion of WuXi Biologics as an expressly named entity on the unclassified §1260H list of Chinese military companies before Jul 1, 2027? · WuXi Biologics | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 82 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the United States Department of Defense announce the inclusion of ByteDance as an expressly named entity on the unclassified §1260H list of Chinese military companies before Jul 1, 2027? · ByteDance | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 62 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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