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Claude App Downloads on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 4815 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
87% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude App Downloads for November 2026 be above 1072 ? · Above 1072 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,974 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Claude App Downloads for November 2026 be above 3373.5 ? · Above 3373.5 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,136 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Claude App Downloads for November 2026 be above 4815 ? · Above 4815 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,750 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Claude App Downloads for November 2026 be above 1813 ? · Above 1813 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 1,041 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Claude App Downloads for November 2026 be above 2445.5 ? · Above 2445.5 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 223 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Claude App Downloads for November 2026 be above 2110.5 ? · Above 2110.5 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 88 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Claude App Downloads for November 2026 be above 1530 ? · Above 1530 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 10 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Claude App Downloads for November 2026 be above 2847.5 ? · Above 2847.5 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.