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closest governor's race on Kalshi
If Oklahoma has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: CBS News, Fox News, official state or local election division websites, ABC, The Washington Post, Reuters, Ballotpedia, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions, Politico, NBC News, the Associated Press, The New York Times, Bloomberg News, FiveThirtyEight.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Georgia | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 41,640 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Kansas | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 32,732 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Wisconsin | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 29,108 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Arizona have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Arizona | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 27,263 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Alaska | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 26,868 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Iowa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 26,279 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Nevada have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Nevada | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 25,878 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Michigan | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 21,698 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Texas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 21,311 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Ohio | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 21,282 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Pennsylvania have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Pennsylvania | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 19,297 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Maine | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 18,050 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Nebraska | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 16,520 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will New York have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · New York | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 16,287 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Florida have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Florida | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 15,479 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Minnesota | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 13,242 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will New Mexico have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · New Mexico | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 12,393 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · New Hampshire | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 11,508 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Vermont have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Vermont | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,023 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Oregon have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Oregon | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,659 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Oklahoma | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,626 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Colorado have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · Colorado | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,244 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will South Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · South Carolina | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,198 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will South Dakota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections? · South Dakota | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,174 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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