Markets › Kalshi › Elections
closest house race on Kalshi
If WI-03 has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Official state election office results, the Associated Press.
Market says (typical open contract)
25%
Median YES price across 34 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
50% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.63 | 26.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CO-04 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · CO-04 | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 12 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will IA-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · IA-02 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will WI-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · WI-03 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will WI-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · WI-01 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will VA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · VA-01 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will TX-35 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · TX-35 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will TX-34 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · TX-34 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will TX-23 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · TX-23 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will TX-15 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · TX-15 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will SC-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · SC-01 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will PA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · PA-01 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OH-09 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · OH-09 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will NY-21 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · NY-21 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will NY-17 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · NY-17 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will NV-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · NV-02 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will NC-11 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · NC-11 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will NC-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · NC-01 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will MT-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · MT-01 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will MN-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · MN-01 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will MI-10 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · MI-10 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will MI-07 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · MI-07 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will MI-04 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · MI-04 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ME-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · ME-02 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will IA-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · IA-03 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will FL-25 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · FL-25 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will FL-22 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · FL-22 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will FL-14 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · FL-14 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will FL-13 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · FL-13 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will FL-09 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · FL-09 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will FL-07 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · FL-07 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will CO-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · CO-03 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will AZ-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · AZ-02 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will AL-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · AL-02 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will AK-AL have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections? · AK-AL | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jan 03, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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