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Chipotle Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports above -0.5% comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
88%
Median YES price across 47 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
25% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 88¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $0.42 | 88.7% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 3.5% comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 3.5% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 8,014 | May 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 2.5% comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 2.5% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5,096 | May 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4320 total restaurant count in 2026? · Above 4320 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,028 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 110 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 110 thousand | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 3,884 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4300 total restaurant count in 2026? · Above 4300 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,831 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 3.0% comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 3.0% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,757 | May 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4310 total restaurant count in 2026? · Above 4310 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,789 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4410 total restaurant count in 2026? · Above 4410 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 2,770 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 1.0% comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 1.0% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,422 | May 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4.0% comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 4.0% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,358 | May 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 1.5% comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 1.5% | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 2,354 | May 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4400 total restaurant count in 2026? · Above 4400 | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,943 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above -0.5% comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -0.5% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,783 | May 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4390 total restaurant count in 2026? · Above 4390 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 1,577 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4360 total restaurant count in 2026? · Above 4360 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,452 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4380 total restaurant count in 2026? · Above 4380 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,346 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 0.0% comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 0.0% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,303 | May 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 0.5% comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 0.5% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,192 | May 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4420 total restaurant count in 2026? · Above 4420 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 1,102 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4370 total restaurant count in 2026? · Above 4370 | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 610 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4.5% comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 4.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 566 | May 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 108 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 108 thousand | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 481 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 106 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 106 thousand | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 452 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 104 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 104 thousand | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 378 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 2.0% comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 2.0% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 265 | May 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4385 total restaurant count in fiscal 2026? · Above 4385 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 261 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4375 total restaurant count in fiscal 2026? · Above 4375 | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 221 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 100 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 100 thousand | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 212 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 122 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 122 thousand | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 15 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 120 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 120 thousand | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 15 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 102 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 102 thousand | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 9 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4340 total restaurant count in 2026? · Above 4340 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 8 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4330 total restaurant count in 2026? · Above 4330 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 8 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4350 total restaurant count in 2026? · Above 4350 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 6 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 136 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 136 thousand | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 1 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 140 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 140 thousand | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 138 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 138 thousand | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 134 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 134 thousand | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 132 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 132 thousand | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 130 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 130 thousand | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | May 11, 05:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 47 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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