Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
CO2 level on Kalshi
If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is at least 460 before Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: with data provided by NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Market says (typical open contract)
14%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
27% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.01 | 14.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030? · At least 445 | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 4,794 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030? · At least 450 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 4,638 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030? · At least 440 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 3,534 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030? · At least 460 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,977 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030? · At least 455 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 885 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.