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art collection sales on Kalshi
If the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection is above $500 million at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Artnet.
Market says (typical open contract)
78%
Median YES price across 34 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
45% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 78¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.77 | 79.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Heroes & Lovers (the Koons collection) total more than $130 million at the Christie’s New York 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026? · Above $130 million | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 6,327 | Nov 18, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heroes & Lovers (the Koons collection) total more than $140 million at the Christie’s New York 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026? · Above $140 million | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 6,293 | Nov 18, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heroes & Lovers (the Koons collection) total more than $120 million at the Christie’s New York 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026? · Above $120 million | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 5,345 | Nov 18, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heroes & Lovers (the Koons collection) total more than $150 million at the Christie’s New York 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026? · Above $150 million | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 205 | Nov 18, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $500 million? · Above $500 million | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $490 million? · Above $490 million | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $480 million? · Above $480 million | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $470 million? · Above $470 million | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $460 million? · Above $460 million | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $450 million? · Above $450 million | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $440 million? · Above $440 million | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $430 million? · Above $430 million | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $420 million? · Above $420 million | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $410 million? · Above $410 million | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $400 million? · Above $400 million | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $390 million? · Above $390 million | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $380 million? · Above $380 million | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $370 million? · Above $370 million | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the sum of all sale prices, including buyer’s premiums of the Blaquier-Arrieta Collection at the Sotheby's evening auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST be above $360 million? · Above $360 million | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will William I. Koch Collection evening lots total more than $48 million on November 17, 2026? · Above $48 million | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Nov 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will William I. Koch Collection evening lots total more than $60 million on November 17, 2026? · Above $60 million | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will William I. Koch Collection evening lots total more than $55 million on November 17, 2026? · Above $55 million | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will William I. Koch Collection evening lots total more than $50 million on November 17, 2026? · Above $50 million | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will William I. Koch Collection evening lots total more than $45 million on November 17, 2026? · Above $45 million | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will William I. Koch Collection evening lots total more than $40 million on November 17, 2026? · Above $40 million | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will William I. Koch Collection evening lots total more than $35 million on November 17, 2026? · Above $35 million | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will William I. Koch Collection evening lots total more than $30 million on November 17, 2026? · Above $30 million | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will William I. Koch Collection evening lots total more than $25 million on November 17, 2026? · Above $25 million | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 21, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heroes & Lovers (the Koons collection) total more than $90 million at the Christie’s New York 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026? · Above $90 million | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 18, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heroes & Lovers (the Koons collection) total more than $80 million at the Christie’s New York 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026? · Above $80 million | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 18, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heroes & Lovers (the Koons collection) total more than $70 million at the Christie’s New York 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026? · Above $70 million | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 18, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heroes & Lovers (the Koons collection) total more than $160 million at the Christie’s New York 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026? · Above $160 million | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 18, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heroes & Lovers (the Koons collection) total more than $110 million at the Christie’s New York 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026? · Above $110 million | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 18, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heroes & Lovers (the Koons collection) total more than $100 million at the Christie’s New York 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026? · Above $100 million | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 18, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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