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Will James Comey’s national defense information case be dismissed? on Kalshi

If United States of America v. James Brien Comey, Jr. (No. 1:26-cr-00229, D.D.C.) including any indictment that replaces it charging Comey with the disclosure alleged in that case has been dismissed by the court or administrative body with jurisdiction after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

Market says (typical open contract)
90%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
21% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢ (now)0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will James Comey’s national defense information case be dismissed before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 202728¢28%1.4¢—55%10,401Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will James Comey’s national defense information case be dismissed before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 202790¢90%0.7¢—21%176Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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