What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 32¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.36.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 34% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 32%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Company Merger on Kalshi

If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database, Fox Business, ABC, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, MSNBC, Financial Times, The Information, NBC, The Washington Post, company, The New York Times, MarketWatch, Axios, Reuters, CNN, the Associated Press, CBS, Politico, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

32%

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

65% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
32¢ (now)	1.5¢	$2.38	33.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	132,812	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	81%	123,910	May 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	98,034	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	93%	95,180	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	65%	74,302	Mar 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	63,427	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2028? · Before 2028	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	51%	58,894	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.