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CONCACAF Nations League Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Dominica vs Cayman Islands professional CONCACAF Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
43%
Median YES price across 69 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
86% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guatemala wins · Guatemala | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 8,559 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Canada wins · Canada | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 5,608 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Barbados wins · Barbados | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 5,272 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Saint Lucia wins · Saint Lucia | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 4,618 | Nov 15, 19:00 UTC |
| Haiti wins · Haiti | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 4,487 | Nov 16, 21:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 1,723 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| USA wins · USA | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,717 | Nov 16, 21:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,237 | Nov 16, 21:30 UTC |
| Cayman Islands wins · Cayman Islands | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,203 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Mexico wins · Mexico | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 853 | Nov 17, 01:00 UTC |
| Guyana wins · Guyana | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 456 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Dominica wins · Dominica | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 385 | Nov 15, 19:00 UTC |
| Puerto Rico wins · Puerto Rico | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 285 | Nov 15, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 196 | Nov 17, 01:00 UTC |
| Jamaica wins · Jamaica | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 158 | Nov 17, 01:00 UTC |
| Cuba wins · Cuba | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 131 | Nov 14, 20:00 UTC |
| El Salvador wins · El Salvador | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 106 | Nov 15, 23:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 94 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Curacao wins · Curacao | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 49 | Nov 15, 00:30 UTC |
| Antigua & Barbuda wins · Antigua & Barbuda | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 43 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Panama wins · Panama | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 38 | Nov 15, 00:30 UTC |
| Vincent Grenadines wins · Vincent Grenadines | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 23 | Nov 17, 00:00 UTC |
| Guadeloupe wins · Guadeloupe | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1 | Nov 18, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 19, 19:00 UTC |
| Dominica wins · Dominica | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 19, 19:00 UTC |
| Cayman Islands wins · Cayman Islands | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 19, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 19, 19:00 UTC |
| Saint Lucia wins · Saint Lucia | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 19, 19:00 UTC |
| Barbados wins · Barbados | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 19, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 19, 19:00 UTC |
| Sint Maarten wins · Sint Maarten | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 19, 19:00 UTC |
| Belize wins · Belize | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 19, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 19, 20:00 UTC |
| Saint Kitts & Nevis wins · Saint Kitts & Nevis | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 19, 20:00 UTC |
| Bonaire wins · Bonaire | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 19, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 18, 19:00 UTC |
| Puerto Rico wins · Puerto Rico | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 18, 19:00 UTC |
| Guyana wins · Guyana | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 18, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 18, 19:00 UTC |
| Bermuda wins · Bermuda | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 18, 19:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 69 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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