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If Panama wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Curacao vs Panama professional CONCACAF Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
89% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuba wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Cuba wins by more than 2.5 goals | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 2,816 | Nov 14, 20:00 UTC |
| Guyana wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Guyana wins by more than 2.5 goals | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 2,725 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Cuba wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Cuba wins by more than 1.5 goals | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 2,048 | Nov 14, 20:00 UTC |
| Cayman Islands wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Cayman Islands wins by more than 2.5 goals | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 36 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Bonaire wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Bonaire wins by more than 2.5 goals | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 10 | Nov 14, 20:00 UTC |
| Bonaire wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Bonaire wins by more than 1.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10 | Nov 14, 20:00 UTC |
| Cayman Islands wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Cayman Islands wins by more than 1.5 goals | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 10 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Panama wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Panama wins by more than 2.5 goals | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 15, 00:30 UTC |
| Panama wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Panama wins by more than 1.5 goals | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 15, 00:30 UTC |
| Curacao wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Curacao wins by more than 2.5 goals | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 15, 00:30 UTC |
| Curacao wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Curacao wins by more than 1.5 goals | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 15, 00:30 UTC |
| Trinidad and Tobago wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Trinidad and Tobago wins by more than 2.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Trinidad and Tobago wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Trinidad and Tobago wins by more than 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Antigua & Barbuda wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Antigua & Barbuda wins by more than 2.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Antigua & Barbuda wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Antigua & Barbuda wins by more than 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Martinique wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Martinique wins by more than 2.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Martinique wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Martinique wins by more than 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Aruba wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Aruba wins by more than 2.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Aruba wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Aruba wins by more than 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Guyana wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Guyana wins by more than 1.5 goals | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Guadeloupe wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Guadeloupe wins by more than 2.5 goals | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Guadeloupe wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Guadeloupe wins by more than 1.5 goals | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Barbados wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Barbados wins by more than 2.5 goals | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Barbados wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Barbados wins by more than 1.5 goals | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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