Markets › Kalshi › Economics
U.S. continuing jobless claims on Kalshi
If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Oct 31, 2026 is at least 1760K, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Oct 31, 2026 be at least 1670K? · At least 1670K | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,005 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Oct 31, 2026 be at least 1760K? · At least 1760K | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,680 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Oct 31, 2026 be at least 1710K? · At least 1710K | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 491 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Oct 31, 2026 be at least 1700K? · At least 1700K | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 279 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Oct 31, 2026 be at least 1720K? · At least 1720K | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 108 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Oct 31, 2026 be at least 1750K? · At least 1750K | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Oct 31, 2026 be at least 1740K? · At least 1740K | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Oct 31, 2026 be at least 1730K? · At least 1730K | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Oct 31, 2026 be at least 1690K? · At least 1690K | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Oct 31, 2026 be at least 1680K? · At least 1680K | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Oct 31, 2026 be at least 1660K? · At least 1660K | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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